AVY

What the Eight-Quarter Record Says About AVY Around Earnings

Across the last eight reported quarters, AVY beat the consensus five times, or 71%, with an average earnings surprise of 1.6%. Despite that positive track record, the average five-trading-day price move after those reports was -2.41%, classified as a “down” drift. That divergence is the central puzzle the tape forces on anyone preparing for the next release.

The last four reported quarters were all beats, and each surprise was modest. On April 28, 2026, AVY reported EPS of $2.47 versus the $2.43 estimate (1.6% surprise) and fell -2.13% the next day and -2.71% over the following five sessions. On February 4, 2026, EPS of $2.45 versus $2.40 (2.1% surprise) produced a -0.13% next-day move and a -0.18% five-day move. On October 22, 2025, EPS of $2.37 versus $2.33 (1.7% surprise) spiked +4.04% on the release day, then gave back that gain and closed the five-day window at -1.59%. On July 22, 2025, EPS of $2.42 versus $2.39 (1.3% surprise) led to -1.11% the next day and -5.17% over the next five sessions. Even with four consecutive beats, three of the four five-day returns were negative, and only one next-day reaction was positive.

Options-Flow Implications for the July 30 Report

The next earnings release is scheduled for July 30, 2026, before the open, with the consensus EPS estimate at $2.47. The most recent close was $160.41, just under the 50-day exponential moving average of $161.84, while the RSI reads 49.5—essentially neutral. That puts AVY roughly at the mid-point of its near-term range heading into the event.

Options pricing into July 30 can reflect that history: with the average five-day post-earnings drift at -2.41%, premium sellers are effectively tracking whether the expected move is wide enough to capture a post-release fade. Directional players, meanwhile, need to square any bullish flow with the fact that AVY’s last four beats still produced five-day results of -0.18%, -1.59%, and -2.71%, plus only one short-term pop. Watch open interest around the $160.41 and $161.84 levels, because those markers define pivot zones for straddles, strangles, and spreads expiring after the report.

Because AVY sits in the Consumer Cyclical/Packaging & Containers group, the July 30 reaction can also be amplified by end-market commentary and guidance, not just the $2.47 EPS print. Still, the options market’s task is to price the distribution of outcomes around a stock with a documented post-earnings fade; the implied move must account for both the 71% historical beat rate and the -2.41% average five-day drift.

A Disciplined Pre-Earnings Checklist

The data gives one clear instruction for AVY: separate the headline result from the price reaction. The stock has beaten in five of the last eight quarters with an average surprise of 1.6%, yet the average five-day drift after those reports is -2.41%. A beat on July 30, 2026, does not, by itself, imply continuation, and the four most recent beats show that next-day strength has repeatedly faded.

Traders can focus on measurable levels: the close near the 50-day EMA at $161.84, the current $160.41 handle, the size of the July 30 gap relative to prior next-day reactions of -2.13%, -0.13%, +4.04%, and -1.11%, and whether the five-day move tracks toward the historical -2.41% average. Volume and options open interest at strikes surrounding $160.41 can also show where the market has concentrated post-release risk. The October 22, 2025 episode is a vivid example: a +4.04% next-day gain after a beat reversed to a -1.59% five-day return.

For a deeper dive into how these technical levels, consensus estimates, and institutional positioning fit together, consult the full institutional verdict on AVY.